Besides the additional $1.8 trillion in deficit reduction, which will put the total reduction target at $4.3 trillion, the budget proposals envisage more than $2 in spending cuts for every $1 of new revenue from closing tax loopholes and reducing tax benefits for the wealthiest.
The Indian central government has reduced its total expenditure by approximately 60,000 crore in FY26, below its revised estimate, to successfully achieve the fiscal deficit target of 4.4 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP), according to the latest data from the Controller General of Accounts (CGA).
With the southwest monsoon stalled over southern Maharashtra, India is facing a nationwide rainfall deficit of 41 percent between June 4 and June 18, according to the latest India meteorological department (IMD) data.
After a subdued start, the southwest monsoon has gathered pace since the beginning of July, narrowing the cumulative rainfall deficit from nearly 30 per cent on June 30 to around 15 per cent as of July 8.
Monthly gold imports have declined to 25-30 tonnes from 70-80 tonnes while recycling of old jewellery has increased following the recent hike in import duties.
Despite decades of efforts towards energy transition, oil will remain the critical energy source for all nations for some decades. We can hope for peace opening the Strait of Hormuz, but must prepare for war closing it, points out former foreign secretary Ranjan Mathai.
The World Bank has increased India's economic growth projection for FY27 to 6.6 per cent, citing resilient domestic demand, while simultaneously cutting its global economic growth outlook due to the conflict in West Asia.
India achieved a current account surplus of USD 7.1 billion, or 0.7 per cent of GDP, in the January-March quarter of 2025-26, primarily boosted by robust services exports and increased remittances from overseas Indians, according to recent Reserve Bank of India data.
Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty surged significantly in early trade, tracking a global rally fueled by US President Donald Trump's declaration of an end to the war with Iran and a subsequent drop in crude oil prices.
Fitch Ratings on Monday said India's pace of debt reduction is gradual, leaving room for a downside risk to sovereign rating in the eventuality of a significant economic shock. However, the rating agency expressed confidence in India's ability to stick to its medium-term fiscal framework, which aims to reduce debt and bring it on a downward trajectory over time.
The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, following a ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran, is expected to significantly ease India's crude oil supply risks, lower freight costs, and reduce inflationary pressures, as global oil prices have already dropped.
Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) withdrew nearly Rs 33,000 crore from Indian equities in May, bringing the total outflow for 2026 to Rs 2.25 lakh crore, driven by weak earnings growth, rupee depreciation, and more attractive opportunities in other global markets.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has announced a record surplus transfer of Rs 2.87 trillion to the central government for FY26, driven by increased income and an expanded balance sheet, despite a reduction in the contingent risk buffer (CRB) to 6.5 per cent.
Insights from behavioural economics suggest that an ambitious nudge can be effective if three conditions are met, points out Ram Singh Insights from behavioural economics suggest that an ambitious nudge can be effective if three conditions are met, points out Ram Singh, director, Delhi School of Economics.
'At the first sign of real trouble, that money will move. There will be a run.'
Petrol and diesel prices in India have been increased for the second time in a week, following a long freeze on revisions. The increase comes as global crude prices surge and state-run oil firms look to recoup losses.
State-owned Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL), and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL) are reportedly incurring losses of Rs 18 per litre on petrol and Rs 35 per litre on diesel, as they continue to absorb rising crude oil costs without increasing retail prices. This situation is leading to expectations of a fuel price hike after upcoming state elections.
Petrol and diesel prices have been increased by Rs 3 per litre each, marking the first hike in over four years, as state-run fuel retailers pass on some of the impact from surging global crude prices, which have been exacerbated by the Iran war.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has proposed immediate demand-side measures, including remote work, lower speed limits, and reduced air travel, to mitigate the impact of a global oil supply shock caused by Middle East disruptions.
The conflict may disrupt Budget 2026-2027 projections, squeezing revenues and raising subsidies, prompting fiscal adjustments and potential reforms, echoing lessons from the Covid-era shock, points out A K Bhattacharya.
India's merchandise trade deficit widened to a record $41.68 billion in October, as gold imports trebled and outbound shipments registered their sharpest contraction in 14 months, according to data released by the commerce department.
Fitch Ratings on Tuesday said the FY25 Budget demonstrated the government's ongoing commitment to reducing fiscal deficit and ensured policy continuity during the NDA government's new term. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Tuesday presented the first Budget of the Modi 3.0 government in which she revised the deficit target for current fiscal lower to 4.9 per cent of the GDP, from 5.1 per cent projected in the interim Budget.
India's state-level fiscal rules have improved headline deficits, but the gains are fragile and uneven with major states still grappling with high debt levels, a World Bank report submitted to the 16th Finance Commission (FC) said. According to the report, despite nearly two decades of adoption of fiscal responsibility laws (FRLs), debt levels have not converged.
India's exports contracted 11.8 per cent to $34.38 billion in October, showed government data released on Monday. Imports jumped 16.63 per cent to $76.06 billion.
Here are the key numbers to watch out for in the Union Budget for 2025-26:
On Agri Stack, Expenditure Secy V Vualnam says it's progressing well; using IT, farmers will be able to choose exact fertiliser quantities needed, reducing crowding at fertiliser outlets.
The forthcoming Budget could think of maintaining public capital expenditure at 3 per cent so that domestic resources are available for private investments, points out N R Bhanumurthy.
After the last Budget's announcement of a major tax relief for those earning an annual salary of less than Rs 12 lakh, there is not much that individuals can look forward to in the forthcoming Budget, points out A K Bhattacharya.
"It is quite possible that the rates will remain low in the near to medium term, but that will depend on how conditions evolve," said RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra.
Gold imports climbed 349.22 per cent to $12.07 billion in January, while silver imports rose 127 per cent to $2 billion.
Highlights of the Economic Survey 2025-26
The finance minister said that consolidation of state-owned banks could proceed at any time without waiting for the recommendations of the proposed high-level committee on banking.
The official also advised all the trade partners to abide by the trade deals. The new 10 percent global tariff is part of Trump's protectionist trade agenda, aimed at addressing balance-of-payments issues and unfair trade practices.
Finance Minister Jaswant Singh chose a newly refurbished hall in North Block to defend his announcements in a post-interim Budget interview.
The idea of back-loading the target of fiscal consolidation is perhaps guided by the government's desire to be prepared for any adverse developments in the coming year, points out A K Bhattacharya.
Budget 2026 sticks to fiscal discipline, shuns populist measures despite five key state elections coming up, but ends up rattling stock markets with a higher transaction tax on derivatives trading.
Trump announced that India and the US agreed to a trade deal under which Washington will charge a reduced reciprocal tariff on Delhi, lowering it from 25 per cent to 18 per cent.
Analysts predict India will face oil price volatility and macroeconomic effects due to the escalating Iran crisis, though the country's oil supply chain is not yet structurally insecure.
The Union Budget for 2026-27, presented by Finance Minister (FM) Nirmala Sitharaman on Sunday, which was a first, had an excellent domestic macro backdrop. According to the first advance estimates, gross domestic product (GDP) in constant prices is projected to grow 7.4 per cent in the current financial year, against 6.5 per cent in 2024-25.
The best course for the government at this time would be to tighten the seat belt a little more, without compromising on its investments in creating better infrastructure and giving a push to privatisation, points out A K Bhattacharya.
